Forest 0 Millwall 3

As there is currently no football we have time to reflect on the recent 0-3 defeat to Millwall and ask how The Lions were able to maul Sabir Lamouchi's men so convincingly - and what might it mean for both clubs for the rest of the season?

Lamouchi has settled on a 4-2-3-1, popular with modern coaches because it usually brings a flexibility which The Reds are struggling to recreate at the moment (see right - all pictures expand when clicked).

Forest’s problems at home, in particular being effective when enjoying possession, are well documented – the inclusion of Joao Carvalho in behind Lewis Grabban made me optimistic that The Reds might be a little more creative this time out.

Gary Rowett changed Millwall’s shape to a 4-2-3-1 for this game, spearheaded by Matt Smith – this turned out to be just one of a series of astute decisions made by the former Derby manager.

You will hear people say things like ‘you know what to expect with Millwall’ and that they are a ‘tough, physical side who put the effort in’ and ‘they will be good at set pieces and bully you’ – these statements skim over the fact that there is a lot of skill in what they do, and there is nothing wrong with having an identity – particularly one admirable enough to celebrate organisation and application above all else.

And it was clear from kick-off that even this Forest side – which does not have the soft underbelly of recent seasons – had their hands full. Millwall played direct football towards Smith and the striker was immediately able to establish an edge in the air – coupled with the support he had from the three attacking midfielders this laid out a marker which unsettled the Forest defenders.

Carvalho, along with Joe Lolley and Sammy Ameobi showed a lot of endeavour, attempting to force their way into the game with the unpredictable movement which has been synonymous of Forest at their best under Lamouchi. However the conditions of Millwall’s press coupled with the individual instructions given to their full-backs made them difficult to break down and dangerous on the counter-attack.

Rowett set his team up to defend narrowly, crowding the most dangerous area of the pitch with yellow shirts. This left space in the channels, and when the ball entered this area a reasonably soft press was triggered – Forest players could make themselves available for the ball here, and recieve possession, but they were usually under pressure as the press shuffled over.

This should have been an opportunity for Lolley and Ameobi, but it looks to me like Mahlon Romeo and Murray Wallace were told to man-mark them independently of the press. Throughout the first half (and beyond, but less so) the Forest wingers trekked across the pitch to get on the ball away from their full-backs, even into their own half, but there was no handing off – within reason Romeo and Wallace just followed them.

This was not as bold a move as it appears when you remember that Millwall had switched to a 4-2-3-1; this is just the kind of flexibility that this system offers, as in an organised team there is both a winger and a defensive midfielder to fill the gap.

Lolley and Ameobi were making a good fist of getting on the ball but were usually drifting into their own half or central areas congested with Millwall players, and usually harried by Romeo and Wallace.

This was not necessarily a problem, as we have seen all season that Lamouchi likes his attackers to vacate their space for others to attack – this is the rehearsed movement that has seen Forest look sharp when attacking this season. 

This space vacated, as well as the initially narrow defensive position of their opponents, created opportunities for Matty Cash and Yuri Ribeiro to attack. 

The Forest full-backs like to get forward anyway; Millwall had clearly prepared for this. Their attacking midfielders were instructed to drift into space appearing behind them. Although more evident behind Cash, I did not observe any player fault - it appeared to be a tactical risk taken on by the team.

This created cat-and-mouse situations on both flanks as the game became an entertaining counter-attacking battle, which Forest ultimately lost.

Millwall’s first two goals came from them exploiting space left by Cash being further down the pitch. Forest are not disorganised, and their own defensive midfielders had covered the right-back on both occasions, however once Millwall had the initiative they executed these goals well.

The first goal played to Millwall’s plan perfectly; with Cash out of the picture, Alfa Semedo found himself isolated against Mason Bennett, who had drifted into the area as per Rowett’s instructions. He could not stop the cross, and the Forest defenders could not stop Millwall striker Smith getting to the ball first. Tactically and individually it was a good goal.

The second goal came from a similar situation; Millwall exposed the space in behind Cash, however this time Smith was not the danger – it was the space vacated by the Forest midfileders who had come across to cover. In a common problem when teams are hit on the break, Watson and Semedo were absent leaving space for Jacob Molumby to attack in a very dangerous area in front of the Forest goal. 2-0.

Analysis of this problem on the night with Forest’s full-backs should be cautious. The space exploited by Millwall was a big part of their victory, however things could easily have been different – Millwall were clearly vulnerable to incursions from Cash and Ribeiro as they invited Forest down their flanks. A goal was coming but it was an even game - if Forest scored first there would have been less need to push forward.

Rowett's plan was a risk as it should in theory have let Forest get a lot of crosses into the Millwall box, however he will have known that, although still capable of scoring from this situation, Forest are relatively poorly suited to exploit this.

Forest only average 19 aerial duels won per game (21^st in the league) compared to Millwall’s 31.5 per game (2nd). Style of play will affect these figures a little, however with the second most won per game in The Championship, it is something The Lions are clearly more comfortable with.

The crossing accuracy figures also point to Forest struggling in this regard – they put in 17.3 inaccurate crosses per game on average (the 2nd most in the league, only behind Leeds). Millwall put in more accurate crosses per game than any other team.

Millwall do not have more accurate crossers of the ball at their club than Forest or Leeds – it is the people on the end of the crosses responsible for the discrepancy.

Forest’s striker Lewis Grabban can score with his head, but it is not his forte – we put in 38 crosses (only 4 of which were along the ground) resulting in only 1 header on goal, while Millwall had 4 headers on goal from their 13 crosses, due to the presence of Smith.

Having an effective target man was a major advantage for Millwall – Smith gave Joe Worrall and Toby Figueiredo a torrid evening. He scored three goals but he contributed much more than this.

Millwall were playing direct balls up to Smith. These passes were well worked balls into areas where he had a slight advantage due to his positioning, and he was laying the ball off to the three attacking midfielders, establishing possession in the Forest half which gave their defence time to reorganise.

He also helped pin the two central defenders which helped during their build up play when The Lions sent the ball into the space behind Forest's full-backs.

His effectiveness was mitigated slightly when Forest went with two up front during the second half. Grabban had been having a tough time pressing their defenders, who were finding time to play quite measured passes into good areas for him - were we to play them again, perhaps in the play-offs, I would expect Ameobi to be pushed up into a front two for the home game.

Once in front Millwall were comfortable, even as Forest put them under a lot of pressure. They look to me to have switched to a 4-4-2 – putting the extra man up front was actually a defensive move; the extra man in attack usually helps pin back an opponent's full-backs, however by that stage Forest were in no mood to hold back and they continued to rove forward regardless.

To be fair to The Reds, perhaps having written off the game they continued to play short passing football, trying to play through the Millwall press. Their opponents were too tenacious however and restricted them to pressured shots from outside the penalty area. They continued to defend the central area of the pitch and put a lot of effort in to ensure when Forest entered this danger area they had little time to do anything creative.

Millwall held Forest off for the rest of the game and won three well deserved points - what does this indicate for the remainder of the season, assuming it will be played?

I'm not too concerned in the short term about a Forest slump; any risk that other teams will look at what Millwall did to us will be mitigated by a couple of factors. Firstly, few other teams have a striker quite like Smith - he was instrumental in their victory, not only in scoring but in creating uncomfortable situations that Forest tend to struggle with.

Secondly, Forest looked quite lively throughout this game - the first goal was instrumental in the result, and it could have gone their way. I've a gut feeling that playing like they were, Forest would have caused most other teams damage, especially teams close to the top of the league. This was an exceptional all round performance by Millwall.

I expect Forest to get into the play-offs and their record against the other top teams is sound.

However, should Millwall climb into the play-offs they will be extremely dangerous. They have an excellent record against the highest placed teams in The Championship - rivalling Forest's own. They are more than a typical hard working Millwall team on a good run and have a real shout at doing something special this season.

Thanks for reading, and best wishes to everybody in these troubling times - look after yourselves and your families.


Thanks to the following sites for their help:
https://www.whoscored.com/Teams/174/Show/England-Nottingham-Forest
http://sharemytactics.com/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/nottingham-forest

Image 7 courtesy of Millwall FC with thanks.