Football without fans - will the home advantage be lost?

Football has been overshadowed this year by the tragedy of Covid-19. As we try to regain some normality and finish the 2019-20 season, I'll be looking at a series of factors which may influence the conclusion of the Championship season. First, a theory on the home team advantage.


It is well established that home teams in football have a clear advantage. This season for example, home teams in The Championship have won on 42.6% of occasions.

However much of this boost is due to fan encouragement – as we all know by now, the resumption of football will be behind closed doors which should logically go a long way towards neutralising this advantage.

Football has already resumed in parts of Europe, and my analysis of the results so far has been surprising. Not only does the home advantage appear to have faded after the re-start, but in fact we have the first indications that away teams may in fact have a significant advantage.

Albeit the sample data is relatively small - 127 games - away teams when playing behind closed doors so far have won on 45.7% of occasions, with the home team’s success shrinking to just 27.5%. If replicated in The Championship that would represent a massive turnaround from the home teams previous advantage.

The German Bundesliga have played the most games since resuming their season – in their games up until 13/06/2020 away teams have won on 50.9% of occasions, with home teams lagging behind on 20.8%.

It is important to note the corresponding figures from before the cessation of football for comparison. In the period between January and March inclusive, home teams won on 39.5% of occasions, with away teams prevailing 38% of the time. So although during that period it was a little more even than here in England, there has been a definitive flip from home to away – in fact home teams were almost twice as likely to win with their fans support.

The pattern of a home-away reversal is generally being hinted at in the major leagues across the continent; The Danish Superliga and Greek Superleague appear to be bucking the trend, although with fewer games played. Overall figures have the away sides winning a hefty 45.7% of games.

How might this affect The Championship? Looking at the table below (click to enlarge) from www.soccerstats.com we can see that some teams do much better at home than they do away, teams like Derby, Preston, Luton and Charlton in particular, with Fulham and Stoke also doing much better at home. If these teams are reliant on home support, we can expect to see their form drop.

West Brom, Forest, Bristol and Reading all appear less in need of the encouragement of their home fans, doing better away from home.

However, it is difficult to say how Forest would fare if there is a home-away flip. I have often observed The Reds struggle under the scrutiny of The City Ground crowd. With less pressure they might in fact find it easier to get home results.

And a close look at the tactical issue that has dominated their season could be revealing – the correlation between high possession and poor results.

Forest have seen more of the ball at home and been less inclined to sit back and play on the counter-attack – a tactic that has been fruitful all season. With no fans Sabri Lamouchi may be more inclined to play in a more conservative manner instead of taking the game to opponents.

However this may also work to their disadvantage away from home, as teams may do the same. Without supporters goading them on, home teams may be reluctant to make themselves vulnerable to Forest’s efficient counter attacking play, thus diminishing The Reds effectiveness on the road.

I can see Forest being an exception, perhaps immune to the expected home-away flip which may become a trend in The Championship, because of the style of play Lamouchi has installed. I expect to see a deterioration in their away form balanced by improvement at home.

So although a possible home-away flip might not affect Forest as much as other teams, it is something to bear in mind as it will create unpredictable results, not to mention that if you like a bet, take note because as of the time of writing the bookies have not reflected this possibility in their odds.

Thanks to www.soccerstats.com.

Tomorrow I'll be looking at the new rules on 5 substitutions.

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