Ryan Yates Myths

Ryan Yates is another of those players who splits opinion, attracting a wide variety of criticism. Which grumbles are justified? Which are myths? And can he fit into a successful midfield?

1. Forest’s results are poorer when Ryan Yates plays.

Forest are struggling, however the alleged drop in performance with Yates in the side simply has not happened this season.

Yates has played for 45 minutes or more in 18 league games, yielding 19 points - an average of 1.06 points per game. He has failed to feature for 45 minutes in 5 games, which returned 3 points – an average of 0.6 points per game.

I would not say the improved tally is due to Yates – in fact this statistic is kind to him; Forest lost a game which he started but was sent off, contributing to that defeat. However, even if we artificially alter the statistics to take this game into account, Forest still earned more points with him in the side and therefore this claim is clearly a myth.

2. Ryan Yates cannot tackle/cannot defend.

Yates’ defensive statistics look good. This season he has made above the average amount of successful tackles, clearances and blocked shots when compared to other Championship defensive midfielders, and has been dribbled past below the average amount of times.

Forest enjoy around the average amount of possession at 49.9%, so it is difficult to argue that Yates’s defensive statistics are skewed by the team spending more time defending.

Forest tend to concede less goals when Yates is involved. Forest have allowed one goal every 95.3 minutes Yates played of Championship football. In his absence Forest conceded every 60 minutes – on average it has taken teams over 35 minutes longer to score against Forest with Yates on the pitch.

3. Ryan Yates cannot head a ball.

Yates wins far more headers than the average first team defensive midfielder in The Championship.

It is useful to have a player in this position so strong in the air, due to the evolving movement of attackers at this level. Strikers are deliberately drifting away from the central defenders on the turnover, to create mis-matches when competing for high, direct passing.

Having a player like Yates in midfield is a tactical advantage when dealing with this – we’ve seen an example of why in the game against Cardiff, where Yates was tasked with neutralising Kieffer Moore in the second half (I’ve written about it here).

4. Ryan Yates’s positioning is poor.

Positioning and reading the game is one of this player’s strong points – Yates can be relied upon to be in the correct area whether the team is out of possession or on the attack.

As well as screening the defence effectively, Yates’s awareness often sees him helping the defence. For example, Forest have a problem this season space appearing between Tobias Figueiredo and Cyrus Christie. This was capitalised on repeatedly by Norwich as the Forest midfield failed to react, and contributed to their first goal. Yates almost always recognises this danger; he is like poly-filler when gaps appear in the defence.

The amount of duels Yates wins is exceptional – he is averaging 8 per game, almost double the average for a defensive midfielder. His percentage of won/lost duels is high, but not high enough to justify this figure – good positioning is responsible for this amount of duels won.

5. Energy and commitment aren’t enough.

Undeniable facets to Yates’s game are his fitness, attitude, effort and passion for the club.

It is claimed that these should be the bare minimum, and not lead to a player being picked for first team football. Unfortunately we’ve seen that these traits are not universal – they are not even common. So while energy and commitment aren’t enough – they should be valued highly.

6. Ryan Yates gives the ball away too much.

Yates gives the ball away slightly less than average for a first team Championship defensive midfielder. He has lost possession an average of 10.8 times per game; the average for defensive midfielders playing 10 games or more is 11.04 times per game.

This is even harsher an allegation when considering the forward passing myth...

7. Ryan Yates does not pass the ball forwards.

Possibly the most common, and easily disproven Yates myth is that he does not pass the ball forwards, and therefore stifles the teams creativity.

I regularly pull up the relevant statistics on Twitter when this is unfairly claimed, but for example in the last game 72.7% of Yates’s passes were forward ones. This high amount is typical for the Forest man.

It is often alleged that other teams defensive midfielders play the ball forwards more than Yates – usually Norwich are cited. But their players in this position do not play the ball forward as much as is claimed, because it is not their role. In the last game Alexander Tettey played 48.8% forward passes, and in the game before that Oliver Skipp played 49% forward passes, and Kenny McLean played 65.2%.

8. Ryan Yates is poor at passing.

Yates’ passing accuracy is currently 76.7%. There are players in his position in The Championship who average into the 80-90% area – Norwich’s Skipp averages 88.5%. Bristol’s Adam Nagy has the highest in the league, an impressive 89.5%.

The average passing accuracy for defensive midfielders in The Championship is 78%, therefore Yates is below average in this regard.

This is mitigated somewhat by the low amount of those passes being backwards; the likes of Skipp and Nagy play safer passes in general, however this is certainly an area which Yates can improve.

9. Ryan Yates runs away from the ball when Forest are in possession.

This is another imaginary claim; Yates does a good job of making himself available for the ball, and gets involved in possession.

We can see this in the amount Yates is on the ball – he regularly accrues over 60 touches in games, and is generally more involved than his defensive partner, which is not typical of a player shy of the ball.

10. Forest are less creative when Ryan Yates plays.

On average with Yates on the pitch this season it has taken Forest 142.9 minutes to score a goal, Without him it has taken 120 minutes to score – a difference of 22.9 minutes, therefore statistically this is not a myth.

This may add credence to the argument that Forest should not play with two defensive midfielders. Under Hughton The Reds have struggled to find a balance between attack and defence, and even during the current improved form – featuring Sow and Yates in midfield – Forest are only averaging a goal a game.

A balancing consideration should be that we have already seen Forest conceding goals 35.3 minutes faster without Yates in the side – statistically the creativity brought by not having the youngster in the side is outweighed by the extra goals we have been conceding.

If indeed you can call it creativity – a goal every 120 minutes, which has been the improved figure without Yates, hardly screams creativity.

This is more debatable than many Ryan Yates myths, however I would expect, as for the top teams in the division, creativity to come from players with attacking roles.

11. The attackers are having to come deep to get the ball because Ryan Yates cannot progress it.

It is necessary for attackers to come deep for the ball in modern football – every team creates space with such movement.

You can read here about how Sabri Lamouchi had his best results with his Forest team moving all around the pitch. I’ve watched Harry Kane this week – he is always dropping into midfield, as can be seen from his heat-map. It is no reflection on Yates that this happens at Forest – it is simply good movement by the attacking players.

12. Teams cannot be successful with two defensive midfielders, and since Samba Sow is better than Ryan Yates, Yates should not play.

It is self evident that teams can be successful with two defensive midfielders – it would be nice to have an Andy Reid character able to create from deep, however they are hard to come by at this level and not absolutely necessary.

However I’ve sympathy with this sentiment – there is nothing wrong with the preference for Forest to have a (theoretically) more attack minded, ball playing midfielder in the team, rather than Yates.

The question is, is it right for this Forest team?

Forest are starting to show how it is possible to play without this deep play-maker, with the developing relationship of Yates and Sow. The Forest midfield has been settled for the last 5 league games, and we have seen an improvement in how the team looks after the ball.

The duo seem to have built an understanding based on knowing their jobs and what position the other player will occupy, in and out of possession. They tend to take up space that appears due to their partner’s movement.

There is an agenda between them to keep it simple and retain possession – we can see that if one player has the ball, while he is looking up, often the other player is moving into space and showing himself as a second choice, meaning that the player in possession does not have to play riskier passes.

This works for Forest, because aside from Sammy Ameobi the attackers are not suited to direct play. Yates and Sow have been recycling the ball more, and the team’s average possession in the last five games has jumped to 51.6%, up from 43.3% the previous five games.

Considering the attacking players’ suitability to possession football, it is no surprise that results have improved.

There is a danger of us becoming sucked in by fashionable phrases and metrics such as “progressive passing” but this isn’t necessarily how football works – every system works differently in different situations, and progression isn’t just those attractive, defence-splitting passes. The simpler, possession-building approach may be more suitable, and is an example of how you can play with two defensively minded midfielders.

That is not to say the defensive midfield should not play passes that “break the lines” (another vogue phrase). It is situational.

Moreover, we’ve already seen that Yates in particular plays a high percentage of forward passes. The Preston game was a good example; Yates played the ball up to the forwards on several occasions, and started the move for the Forest goal.

13. You think Ryan Yates is the next Lionel Messi/this is propaganda.

Ryan Yates is not the messiah – but nor is he a very naughty boy. The criticism he has received has ranged from abuse, to the patently untrue, to the reasonable.

He is not the most creative player, however he is better in this regard than he is credited with, especially for a player who can do the defensive side of the game so well.

Forest could definitely benefit from more technical ability in midfield – whether that has to be at the expense of Yates, one of out most reliable players, is debatable. For the first time this season the current midfield seems to be building an understanding which seems to play to Forest’s strengths, rather than their weaknesses.

We have a player in Yates who would run through brick walls for the club. It is rare – he deserves any criticism to be well reasoned and accurate. He deserves our support.