Forest v Sheffield United play-off preview

Forest take on Sheffield United in the Championship play-offs over the next few days hoping to complete what would be one of the most remarkable comebacks in their history.

Paul Heckingbottom has done a good job at United, and usually deploys a 3-4-3 variant similar to Forest’s on paper. Although their overlapping central defenders are no longer a focus, they still retain many key players from that era; John Egan and Chris Basham remain in central defence, with former Forest man Jack Robinson taking over from the excellent, but long-term injured, Jack O’Connell.

Enda Stevens remains at left wing-back. On the opposite flank Ben Osborn may have a point to prove if he holds onto the shirt from Sam Baldock who is returning from injury, while centrally Oliver Norwood and John Fleck will act as the pivot.

Their attacking trio is of real concern. United have had a glut of injuries in forward positions this season; Oliver McBurnie, David McGoldrick and Rhian Brewster should all miss out.

Billy Sharp is racing to be fit – no Forest fan will want to see him on the pitch, however if anything United have thrived in the absence of their main strikers.

Heckingbottom has been forced to push Wolves loanee Morgan Gibbs-White into a forward role. During the games earlier this season we witnessed how good this player is. He knows how to find space and has the quality to use it – his more advanced role has amplified this and he has picked up momentum as the season has continued, operating similar to a false 9 at times. Alongside him, Iliman Ndiaye offers a different aspect of play than Sharp – he is a tricky, pacey forward who along with Gibbs-White gives The Blades an edge on the counter attack.

However, the biggest beneficiary of United’s attacking injuries is Sander Berge, who has been pushed forward into a number 10 role.

Berge arrived in Sheffield in 2020 – while clearly a good player with potential, deployed deeper in central midfield he never looked like justifying his hefty price-tag until recently. An unusual mix of creativity and power, the Norwegian has helped establish possession high up the pitch and his intelligent movement has caused recent opponents problems.

This is especially so in conjunction with Gibbs-White. Berge has been making well timed, penetrative runs into the space vacated by his team-mate. Their latest opponents have been unable to cope with United’s movement and new-found creativity.

However, Forest have shown improvement off the ball. The arrival of Steve Cook appears to have prompted a general understanding with each player aware of his role, as was demonstrated against Fulham recently – The Garibaldi tracked the movement of the Cottagers’ attackers and neutralised them impressively.

I think we will see some man marking in key areas. Based on the Fulham game, we may see Joe Worrall or Scott McKenna happy to step out of defence and follow Gibbs-White as he searches for space. Ryan Yates looked after the number 10 in Fulham’s system, setting up a potential clash of the titans against the powerful Berge.

United like to get the ball forward quickly. I’ve heard grumbles about direct football: I feel this is harsh, they just like to get the ball into the opposition half and have their (usually high) share of possession in this part of the pitch.

This was a prominent aspect of the last game. Both teams played well but a tactical problem for United was that Forest (in particular Yates) were neutralising the direct balls into midfield, particularly in the air.

Once they do manage to establish possession in the opposition half, United like to use their width to stretch opposition teams. Their three attackers are supplemented by the wing-backs staying wide, who operate slightly differently to Forest’s more direct style as they attempt to maintain possession and pry open space in the opposition formation. The midfield and defence creep forward to apply the squeeze.

Against a Fulham team playing a back four this caused havoc. At times QPR and Cardiff were pulled apart too, however as these teams employed a back three with wing-backs they coped better. Assuming Forest will be tougher still, we can assume they will have to deal with plenty of crosses.

Only West Brom have crossed the ball more than United in The Championship this season, and they are visibly more effective at this from the right hand side of the pitch. This is bore out statistically - 23.1% of crosses from the right flank created a chance, compared with 12.8% of crosses from the left.

This right-wing danger has probably been due to the players operating in this area; Gibbs-While roams looking for space here, Osborn likes to check onto his left foot and cross, but the biggest danger is Norwood, who likes to fizz in deep crosses – on this side of the pitch he does not have to check back onto his favoured right foot.

Forest need to be touch tight on Norwood in this area of the pitch and show Osborn down the line onto his weaker foot, however they are no longer the soft touch when dealing with crosses, and they will cope with United trying to stretch them better than their recent opponents.

Their opponents are far from blunt, but Forest have teeth too.

A key area in this tie will be The Red’s possession in their defensive third of the pitch. We’ve mentioned earlier that United like to play the ball quickly into midfield, however Forest are completely different, more patient in playing the ball around their back 3 and goalkeeper until there is an opportunity to break forward. 37.2% of Forest’s possession is with these players, compared to 24.7% of United’s in this system.

As Forest are pressed, there is a danger of them losing the ball regularly in this area, however when they break through United will be vulnerable, as they appear not to cope well running back towards their own goal.

Forest have attempted more dribbles this season than any other Championship team – Brennan Johnson and Djed Spence in particular breaking at speed. This strength would be boosted should Keinan Davies get himself fit – he gave the Blades’ defence a torrid time earlier this season.

Based on previous games, this may be the pattern of the tie – both teams having a lot of possession in the Forest half, with The Reds hoping to spring forward on the break.

With play in this area, the extent to which both sides commit their full-backs forward will be key. We will see a game of cat and mouse on either wing, particularly on Forest’s right. How far will Stevens creep up the pitch to join in with United’s possession? Counter attack on this side of the pitch will be United’s main vulnerability.

On the other flank, Colback will have to pay close attention to the dynamic runs of Osborn (or Baldock). Not a natural defender, he will need help considering Gibbs-White will spend time drifting wide too.

However, there could also be opportunity down the left if United pay too much attention to stifling Johnson and Spence – space may appear for Colback to push into.

We’re certainly in for an interesting couple of games tactically.

The two clubs have had similar seasons. Forest’s improvement is well documented under Steve Cooper – no club has been promoted from the second tier after being bottom after seven games, yet they are still in with a real chance.

Following their poor start United have been almost as good under Heckingbottom, under whom their points per game ratio would have seen them joint second over 46 matches. If the season started again tomorrow, both teams would worry Fulham and Bournemouth.

Speaking to United fans and you might hear that they’re cursed in the play-offs having been unsuccessful in seven attempts, however Forest arguably have one of the worst play-off records in English football. The Reds are one of only 13 EFL clubs yet to win a single tie in their current format.

That is not the only sign that history is not on Forest’s side; only 3 teams in the football league have waited longer to return to Wembley.

Yet this is possibly – probably – the best team to wear the Garibaldi since their relegation from The Premier League 23 years ago. Sheffield United are on form, confident, alive with quality, experience and will not buckle under pressure. Forest have the tools to beat them but there is very little room for error.

Thanks to sharemytactics.com, www.whoscored.com, Forest TV, SUTV, Sofascore.com, and thanks for reading.