Football without fans - will the home advantage be lost?

Football has been overshadowed this year by the tragedy of Covid-19. As we try to regain some normality and finish the 2019-20 season, I'll be looking at a series of factors which may influence the conclusion of the Championship season. First, a theory on the home team advantage.


It is well established that home teams in football have a clear advantage. This season for example, home teams in The Championship have won on 42.6% of occasions.

However much of this boost is due to fan encouragement – as we all know by now, the resumption of football will be behind closed doors which should logically go a long way towards neutralising this advantage.

Football has already resumed in parts of Europe, and my analysis of the results so far has been surprising. Not only does the home advantage appear to have faded after the re-start, but in fact we have the first indications that away teams may in fact have a significant advantage.

Albeit the sample data is relatively small - 127 games - away teams when playing behind closed doors so far have won on 45.7% of occasions, with the home team’s success shrinking to just 27.5%. If replicated in The Championship that would represent a massive turnaround from the home teams previous advantage.

The German Bundesliga have played the most games since resuming their season – in their games up until 13/06/2020 away teams have won on 50.9% of occasions, with home teams lagging behind on 20.8%.

It is important to note the corresponding figures from before the cessation of football for comparison. In the period between January and March inclusive, home teams won on 39.5% of occasions, with away teams prevailing 38% of the time. So although during that period it was a little more even than here in England, there has been a definitive flip from home to away – in fact home teams were almost twice as likely to win with their fans support.

The pattern of a home-away reversal is generally being hinted at in the major leagues across the continent; The Danish Superliga and Greek Superleague appear to be bucking the trend, although with fewer games played. Overall figures have the away sides winning a hefty 45.7% of games.

How might this affect The Championship? Looking at the table below (click to enlarge) from www.soccerstats.com we can see that some teams do much better at home than they do away, teams like Derby, Preston, Luton and Charlton in particular, with Fulham and Stoke also doing much better at home. If these teams are reliant on home support, we can expect to see their form drop.

West Brom, Forest, Bristol and Reading all appear less in need of the encouragement of their home fans, doing better away from home.

However, it is difficult to say how Forest would fare if there is a home-away flip. I have often observed The Reds struggle under the scrutiny of The City Ground crowd. With less pressure they might in fact find it easier to get home results.

And a close look at the tactical issue that has dominated their season could be revealing – the correlation between high possession and poor results.

Forest have seen more of the ball at home and been less inclined to sit back and play on the counter-attack – a tactic that has been fruitful all season. With no fans Sabri Lamouchi may be more inclined to play in a more conservative manner instead of taking the game to opponents.

However this may also work to their disadvantage away from home, as teams may do the same. Without supporters goading them on, home teams may be reluctant to make themselves vulnerable to Forest’s efficient counter attacking play, thus diminishing The Reds effectiveness on the road.

I can see Forest being an exception, perhaps immune to the expected home-away flip which may become a trend in The Championship, because of the style of play Lamouchi has installed. I expect to see a deterioration in their away form balanced by improvement at home.

So although a possible home-away flip might not affect Forest as much as other teams, it is something to bear in mind as it will create unpredictable results, not to mention that if you like a bet, take note because as of the time of writing the bookies have not reflected this possibility in their odds.

Thanks to www.soccerstats.com.

Tomorrow I'll be looking at the new rules on 5 substitutions.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Steve Cooper: the tactics

Image
This week ex-Swansea boss Steve Cooper became Forest’s 21 st full time manager/head coach since their relegation from The Premier League – how might he change things tactically and what might it mean for the current squad? Initially at Swansea, Cooper favoured a 4-2-3-1, switching at times to a 4-3-3 system. A feature of these sides was patient play out from the back and a focus on attacking down the flanks. He changed to a 3-4-1-2 for the 2020/21 season, but retained this patient, wing-based approach. The 3-4-1-2 system is interesting because of the way it’s developed in The Championship, and this is worth bearing in mind when thinking about the way Cooper’s teams play – where at elite level you would not call it a defensive system, Championship teams have taken to it in larger numbers because of the efficiency with which it’s shape covers the pitch defensively. So at this level the 3-4-1-2, or other 3-4-3 derivatives, have quite a defensive ethos, and considering how Forest lined...
Read more

It's time for a change; it's time for stability.

Image
This is an open letter to every Forest fan - including Mr Fawaz Al Hasawi - about the importance of stability, at a time when this football club needs it the most. Lets set aside for a moment Stuart Pearce's status, and whether because of his many years of loyalty and love for Nottingham Forest he deserves more time. The question is whether, in the cold light of day, Forest would be better placing emotion and attachment aside and making yet another change. The likelihood of being under the FFP transfer embargo until the summer of 2016 makes promotion this season even more attractive - yet we are 9 points outside the playoff positions. Our season has stalled - but a change now would all but end our promotion chances this season. Managers who come in part way through a season have not had the opportunity to form a truly winning formula, because much of the work towards this is done pre-season. They may be able to patch up some aspects of the team's play...
Read more

Lamouchi's 4-1-4-1

Image
After six interesting games under Sabri Lamouchi we are now able to discern the system which he has put into place at Forest, and what it means for their style of play this season. Our new Head Coach has so far deployed a 4-1-4-1. In modern tactics, this formation has developed separately from a couple of different ideas. The more defensive idea saw teams retreating their wide forwards from a 4-3-3, in order to form a defensive block behind the ball, but we have also seen a possession based ethos, as elite teams began cultivating the 4-1-4-1 as a more flexible twist on the 4-2-3-1. This possession hogging, passing style of the 4-1-4-1 was developed by the likes of Luis Aragones, who switched to this system during Spain’s victorious Euro 2008 campaign, and Joachim Low with Germany, but perhaps the best example is Pep Guardiola using a lot of the principles at Barcelona, and implementing them into a 4-1-4-1 at Bayern Munich and Manchester City. These are the teams and managers t...
Read more