Five substitutions available in The Championship?

Football has been overshadowed this year by the tragedy of Covid-19. As we try to regain some normality and finish the 2019-20 season, I'll be looking at a series of factors which may influence the conclusion of the Championship season. Next is the possibility of extra substitutions being available.

In order to protect player welfare, FIFA have made a temporary amendment in the laws covering substitutions:

• A team can now make a maximum of five substitutions per game, instead of three.

• If a game enters extra time (not time added on), a sixth substitution may be made.

• Each team will have a maximum of three opportunities to make their five changes - in addition to half-time.

These changes are discretionary and must be ratified by the individual competition organisers, in the case of The Championship the EFL – unsurprisingly the EFL have not made a statement regards whether this change has been implemented (unless I’ve missed it – I’ve looked hard). A decision on this was due to be made on June the 8^th.

However I think we can assume that this is happening; not only is it common sense, but I've found that the EFL’s Match day Operating Guide references an expanded match-day squad, which in other competitions has accompanied the rule change.

How might extra substitutions change things competitively? It would obviously benefit teams with bigger and better squads. I’ll touch on this more in a subsequent article, but for what it’s worth I think Forest are in a good position in this regards.

But extra substitutions might also have tactical implications.

I’ve read an excellent article by Guto Llewelyn writing for Wales Online. He points out that this rule is already in use in the Bundesliga, and that although German coaches were slow to adapt, they soon began using the extra substitutions tactically, making them earlier and influencing the way the games have been played.

Championship teams who are able to use these extra substitutions strategically will also have an advantage over rivals who cannot.

You would imagine that managers who like to tinker will adapt the quickest (see table, right, for who makes the most substitutions, click to enlarge). West Brom's Slaven Bilic has made the most changes this season. He is also very experienced – I would expect him to enjoy the opportunity to further influence games.

I can also see Marcelo Bielsa, who has been managing for longer than the ten most inexperienced Championship coaches combined, being more influential. He makes relatively few substitutions but the opportunity to change personnel will surely benefit the more knowledgeable managers like him, especially against the widespread inexperience in charge of many Championship clubs.

Forest’s substitutions this season give cause for optimism.

Sabri Lamouchi usually makes all three changes – were it not for the Sheffield Wednesday debacle, where he deliberately left the same team on the pitch, he would be one of the most trigger happy in the league.

Not only does the Frenchman like to tinker, his changes appear sound. Just from a personal point of view, I think Lamouchi usually gets the changes during games right - any grumbles I remember have been directed at starting line-ups rather than substitutions or tactical adjustments during games.

The Forest coach tends to make adjustments in key areas based on how the game is going, and a deep analysis of his substitutions highlights his formula. 

If unhappy with the game Lamouchi makes a change in personnel in the middle of the pitch - either a straight switch with a different type of central midfielder, or he brings a different kind of player in in order to move somebody else into the middle. Ben Watson appears immune to this change, which occurs around the hour mark. If happy Lamouchi still makes a change at this time, but it is generally a like-for-like switch out on the wing.

This micro-managing without actually changing the team's strategy, the knowledge of how to tweak his system without disrupting what the team are good at, appears to me to work, and the statistics back this up.

There are different ways of analysing success of substitutions on paper, but if measured on match situation following an individual substitution, Forest’s situation improved after 21.5% of Lamouchi’s changes, and worsened after just 3.7%.

Basically however you crunch the numbers – if you look at goals scored or conceded, or measure it by individual matches, or in any other way – the statistics show Forest’s situation improving, for whatever reason, after Lamouchi makes substitutions. This doesn’t prove he is a tactical maestro waving a magic wand to change games as there will obviously be multiple factors in play, but it does indicate how the situation has been changing after Lamouchi starts tinkering.

Forest certainly finish games strong – their scoring pattern this season clearly indicates they do better from the second half onwards.

A close look at the figures imply that Lamouchi is able to consolidate winning positions with his changes – only failing to do so on one occasion this season. He has also done well when recovering a losing position into a draw. 

On the negative side, losing positions have only been turned into victory once, so if the Frenchman is actually making the difference, it is not so profound that he is regularly turning games completely on their head. But he nevertheless appears ahead of the curve.

The tactics Forest employ could benefit from the extra substitutions available.

It is well established that Forest have been at their best this season when the opposition sees more of the ball. They use the counter attack with clever movement to strike at over-exposed opponents. But playing this way is taxing physically. Not only do possession oriented teams make opponents work harder by moving the ball around, but also the way Forest play means that a higher proportion of their attacks originate from further down the pitch – an explosion of energy which takes it’s toll.

With fitness being an issue for the remainder of the season the extra substitutions will provide respite for teams like Forest, who don’t see as much of the ball and like to play on the counter-attack.

So considering the size and quality of Forest’s squad, Lamouchi’s apparent proficiency at making substitutions, and that it may be beneficial tactically, if there are an extra two substitutions available it should help Forest more than most teams.

You can read the first of my series of shorter articles on the resumption of the Championship season, looking at the possible effects of no fans at games, here.

Thanks to:

www.soccerstats.com

www.fbref.com

www.walesonline.co.uk

www.efl.com/

www.fifa.com